Macron gambles on snap election to fight far-right surge

PARIS — European elections are meant to be worthy but boring exercises in centrist coalition building. Not this time.

A surge in far-right populism in France provoked President Emmanuel Macron into calling a high-risk national election that could determine the future not only of his country but of the European Union itself.

Across the Continent it was a good if unspectacular night for center-right and far-right parties and a terrible one for liberals and especially greens.  

But in France, the far-right National Rally, led by Euroskeptic and NATO-skeptic firebrands, completely crushed Macron’s liberal Renaissance and all other contenders.

The National Rally is on course to win 31.5 percent of the vote — more than twice the 14.7 percent projected for Macron’s liberal Renaissance party.

In a high-risk gamble to regain the political initiative, Macron bet that voters will turn back the far-right tide and show Marine Le Pen’s National Rally cannot win at a national level.

“France needs a clear majority in serenity and harmony. To be French, at heart, is about choosing to write history, not being driven by it,” Macron said.

Mujtaba Rahman, Europe head at Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy, reckoned the bet would pay off. “It will almost certainly put a brake on Le Pen,” he said.

Le Pen declared her party “ready to exercise power,” and told her ecstatic followers: “I can only welcome this decision.”

The far-right surge in France was replicated elsewhere in Europe on a dramatic night of upheaval in EU politics. In Berlin, Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition parties were beaten by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which came second to the conservatives. Far-right parties were also on course to make gains in Austria, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy, according to early estimates.

In France, the National Rally’s performance in the upcoming snap election on June 30 and July 7 will be closely watched as a harbinger of whether Le Pen — long the also-ran of French politics — can ride her party’s momentum into the presidency in 2027.

As president of the world’s seventh largest economy, Le Pen would almost certainly rock the EU to its foundations, prioritising patriotic interests over international collaboration. Celebrating her party’s win in Sunday’s EU vote, she said the result should send a message to Brussels and “put an end to this painful epoch of globalism.”

Accused of flirting with the Kremlin, she has both vowed to yank Paris out of NATO’s integrated military command and would challenge the authority of the EU executive, which she once called to abolish.

Like Macron, Le Pen suggested France had come to a historical turning point.

“Tonight’s message, including that of dissolution, is also addressed to the leaders of Brussels,” she said. “This great victory for patriotic movements is in line with the direction of history, which is seeing throughout the world the return of nations.”

Macron’s snap decision to dissolve the National Assembly was met with disbelief by his supporters, with several people screaming “Oh no” as he spoke to a crowd in a televised address from his party headquarters in Paris.

In contrast, jubilant supporters of the National Rally party celebrated as Macron announced the dissolution of parliament, something the party had called for as the scale of their victory became apparent.

They sang “Dissolution, dissolution!” as they watched Macron at an electoral event where Le Pen took to the stage.

Le Pen spoke on stage next to the National Rally’s lead candidate for the EU election, Jordan Bardella. As she finished speaking, the audience of several hundred sang the French national anthem, the Marseillaise, waved French tricolors and visited the buffet to get more drinks.

The lead Socialist candidate Raphaël Glucksmann responded to the triumph of the far right by saying: “Everywhere in Europe, we are witnessing a wave that is shaking our democracy.”